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Blogpost written by dr. Iain Todd, Hannah van den Brink and prof. dr. Darren McCauley.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European gas prices have risen sharply, not only increasing the cost of heating but also making electricity generated from gas more expensive. These developments are putting pressure on both consumers and businesses. Europe is therefore in a vulnerable position, with increasing uncertainty in our energy supply. With the rising tensions between Europe and Russia, alternatives to Russian gas are crucial for securing Europe’s energy supply.

However, achieving a unified EU response is not easy, as different member states are dependent on Russian gas to varying degrees. Germany is particularly dependent, but even there, recent announcements have displayed significant resolve, such as the shelving of the recently completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia.      

What then is included in the IEA 10-point plan?  The measures set out in the table below suggest how Europe can significantly reduce its dependence on Russian energy sources, with a target of a 1/3 reduction within a year. Significantly, the plan aims to adhere to the European Green Deal, under which EU countries agreed to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030.

The IEA recommendations coincide with recent research by the authors on the measures needed to deliver a more effective energy transition in the Netherlands and the UK post-COVID, with an emphasis on accelerating both green infrastructure and energy efficiency. One point of departure however is that the IEA do not suggest fiscal reform, presumably because it would be too slow to have an effect in their timescale.  

Further than consistency with the green agenda, the IEA also sets out “emergency actions” which could be taken to further reduce gas imports. These measures could include extending the use of coal and oil for electricity generation, which could come into play if – for example – Russia cut of EU gas supply completely. But they would not be consistent with climate change objectives and are not included in the plan at this time.

In seeking to reduce dramatically its dependence on Russian gas, the EU faces a major challenge. The crisis has shone a bright spotlight on Europe’s vulnerable position on energy security. This is an important topic that requires discussion, and the effects urge us to consider alternatives to the Russian energy supply. The IEA’s 10-point plan presents an important step towards fulfilling this goal.